International Wine Guild Blog
Predictions for the Wine Industry in 2009
- Wine value will, once again, play a major role in wine buying decisions. That is, a non-status wine priced three times lower than a similar status wine will look real good to many "status" buyers.
- Organic, or "natural" wine, will become a strong topic in wine conversation in 2009. Although value will trump organic production costs.
- Upcoming regions: Brazil, Hungary, Colorado, China. Yes, I believe that some Colorado wineries will achieve distribution outside Colorado in 2009.
- With the Dollar/Euro slowly coming more into parity we should see a reduction in the cost of European wine. Maybe by summer (hope spring eternal).
- Direct shipping wine from one state to another is still a legal mess - with no major changes on the horizon. However, 2009 may be a year that sees some improvement. More press (I hope) will make savvy consumers more vocal about direct shipping issues in their own state. However, I also see lots of lawsuits (especially in the area of Winery Self Distribution) on the horizon as well.
- Direct shipping and wholesale distribution will also generate more lawsuits in 2009, especially in states that are planning on changing their direct shipping laws, but I do not see any legal issue making its way to the US Supreme Court in 2009.
- Wine bars, without a strong knowledgeable staff, that only serve "small plates" will have real problems (the value thing again).
- The economics of wine production in California will make wines from other states (like Colorado) as well as foreign wine seem a "better value" in 2009. It also will mean that many smaller, highly debt capitalized, wineries will go under in 2009.
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